Most of that drop off has come among Republicans, where Trump’s favorables have endured a nearly double-digit decrease since Election Day 2022, from 81% to 72%.
Independents have also soured on Trump by 3 points since the election, 36% to 33%.
But the most interesting part of Trump’s cratering support is the notable gender gap. Men more than women it seems, really don’t like a loser. Civiqs tracking shows Trump’s overall loss in support collapsing definitively faster among men—both Republican and independent—than their female counterparts.
Among Republican men, Trump’s favorables dropped 11 points since Election Day, 79% to 68%. Whereas among GOP women, Trump took a smaller 6-point hit since the election, 82% to 76%.
The same is true among independents, where Trump has only suffered a 1-point drop with women since the election (33% to 32%), versus a 4-point drop among men (39% to 35%). (Also of note: Trump’s real inflection point with independent men came just after the FBI found highly sensitive documents at Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence. Republican men weren’t nearly so bothered by the revelation.)
Bottom line here is, Trump hasn’t had an overall favorability rating this low (34%) since late August of 2016. But his main disruption is coming among men, whose loyalty to Trump has been sliding steadily since his loss to Joe Biden from Election Day 2020 (51% favorability) until now (38%).
What better way to wrap up the year than by previewing the biggest contests of 2023 on this week’s episode of The Downballot? Progressives will want to focus on a Jan. 10 special election for the Virginia state Senate that would allow them to expand their skinny majority; the April 4 battle for the Wisconsin Supreme Court that could let progressives take control from conservatives; Chicago’s mayoral race; gubernatorial contests in Kentucky and Louisiana; and much, much more.
Of course, we might’ve thought we were done with 2022 after Georgia, but Kyrsten Sinema decided to make herself the center of attention again. However, co-hosts David Nir and David Beard explain why there’s much less than meets the eye to her decision to become an independent: She can’t take away the Democratic majority in the Senate, and her chances at winning re-election are really poor. In fact, there’s good reason to believe she’d hurt Republicans more in a three-way race. The Davids also discuss the upcoming special election for Virginia’s dark blue 4th Congressional District, where the key battle for the Democratic nomination will take place in less than a week.