College Football Playoff projections: Week 11 leverage games

College Football Playoff projections: Week 11 leverage games

Nov 10, 2023, 09:00 AM ET

If you’ve been paying attention, you’re aware that certain games in a given week have more impact on the College Football Playoff race than others.

The Allstate Playoff Predictor has identified five such games remaining in the regular season. In Week 11, three of those five games are being played.

The Playoff Predictor offers a glimpse of those games and CFP odds for other teams.

Most impactful remaining scheduled games

1. Michigan at Penn State
2. Ohio State at Michigan
3. Ole Miss at Georgia
4. Texas at TCU
5. Georgia at Tennessee

Bold = This week

Playoff leverage for Michigan-Penn State

Chances of making the College Football Playoff for both Michigan and Penn State, depending on the outcome, according to Allstate Playoff Predictor:

Michigan with a win: 70%
Michigan with a loss: 18%
Penn State with a win: 42%
Penn State with a loss: <1%

Chance to send team to CFP

Conference 1 team Multiple
Big Ten 98% 42%
SEC 79% 7%
ACC 64% <1%
Pac-12 64% 4%
Big 12 40% <1%

Big drop off for Big 12

After Oklahoma’s loss to Oklahoma State last Saturday, the Big 12 is the only Power 5 conference with less than a 50% chance to reach the playoff, per the Allstate Playoff Predictor. The Big Ten has a better chance of sending multiple teams than the Big 12 has of sending one.

Ducks flying high

Oregon, which plays USC on Saturday, is the Pac-12’s best hope to reach the playoff with a 38% chance. A win would bump Oregon’s chances to 45%, but a loss would drop the Ducks’ chances to 1%.

Playoff chances for the top teams:


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