Democrats could still win a majority in the House. Here’s what the path looks like

US Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi, a Democrat from California, bangs the gavel after the House of Representatives voted 220-207 to pass the Inflation Reduction Act at the US Capitol in Washington, DC, on August 12, 2022. - US lawmakers on Friday adopted US President Joe Biden's sprawling climate, tax, and health care plan which is a major win for Biden that includes the biggest ever American investment in the battle against global warming. (Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY / AFP) (Photo by OLIVIER DOULIERY/AFP via Getty Images)

  • AK-AL: Rep. Mary Peltola leads with 47% and is very likely to win after ranked-choice voting tabulations are completed on Nov. 23
  • AZ-04: Rep. Greg Stanton is up by 14%
  • CA-09: Rep. Josh Harder is up by 13%
  • CA-21: Rep. Jim Costa is up by 6%
  • CA-26: Rep. Julia Brownley is up by 8%
  • MD-06: Republican challenger Neil Parrot is up by 2%, but once tens of thousands of mail ballots are counted, Rep. David Trone will almost certainly pull ahead
  • ME-02: Rep. Jared Golden leads with 48% and is very likely to win after ranked-choice voting tabulations are completed in the middle of next week
  • NV-01, NV-03, NV-04: All three Democratic incumbents lead with only Democratic-friendly mail ballots left to count

That would take Democrats to 208 seats. They also lead in five seats where their lead is more likely than not to hold up:

  • CA-47: Rep. Katie Porter is up by 1%
  • CA-49: Rep. Mike Levin is up by 2%
  • OR-06: Democrat Andrea Salinas is up by by 2%
  • WA-03: Democrat Marie Gluesenkamp Pérez leads by 5%
  • WA-08: Rep. Kim Schrier leads by 6%

Add in these races and Democrats get to 213 seats, meaning they’d need five more for a majority. The remaining seats, however, are all tough for one reason or another. Democrats do hold a lead in one additional seat, but it’s not clear how the final votes will break:

  • AZ-01: Democrat Jevin Hodge is up by 2% with 73% reporting

This would be seat number 214. The final, majority-making seats are all places where Democrats are currently behind and need later-counted votes to bring them back ahead. If they win everything listed above, then they’d need to win four of these six seats:

  • AZ-06: Democrat Kirsten Engel trails by 3%
  • CA-13: Democrat Adam Gray trails by less than 0.5%
  • CA-22: Democrat Rudy Salas trails by 8% but 39% of the vote has been counted
  • CA-41: Democrats Will Rollins trails by less than 0.5%
  • CO-03: GOP Rep. Lauren Boebert leads Democrat Adam Frisch by 0.12%, with an unknown number of ballots left to count. This race will likely go to a recount.
  • OR-05: Democrat Jamie McLeod-Skinner trails by 2.6%

Lastly there are five competitive GOP-held seats that have not been called (CA-03, CA-27, CA-40, CA-45, NY-22), but it doesn’t look like Democrats will be able to come back in any of these races.

But even if Democrats are unable to retain control of the House, the fact that we’re even discussing the possibility is remarkable. And if they fall just short, Republicans will have only the slimmest of majorities. The knives are already out for Kevin McCarthy, so be ready for some serious GOP chaos.

You can help make this majority happen! Donate now so that Colorado Democrats can ensure every vote gets counted in the race to defeat Lauren Boebert!

Holy crap, what an amazing night! Where do we even begin this week’s episode of The Downballot? Well, we know exactly where: abortion. Co-hosts David Nir and David Beard recap Tuesday’s extraordinary results, starting with a clear-eyed examination of the issue that animated Democrats as never before—and that pundits got so badly wrong. They also discuss candidate quality (still really important!), Democratic meddling in GOP primaries (good for democracy, actually), and “soft” Biden disapprovers (lots of them voted for Democrats).

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