With Raphael Warnock’s triumphant victory in the Georgia’s Senate runoff election, we can now unveil the winners of the 2022 Daily Kos Elections prediction contest! As you may recall, we asked you to submit your predictions for the winners in 10 Senate, 29 House, and 12 gubernatorial races, as well as six downballot deep cuts ranging from ballot initiatives to judicial elections.
Ultimately, it was a three-way tie for first place, with users kloechner, Rubyclaire, and egamaunt scoring 49 points each (out of a total possible 57 points)! After a tiebreaker round—where we asked entrants to submit their guesses for the first-round results in Alaska’s at-large congressional district—kloechner finished first overall, with the lowest error score of 3.1, followed by Rubyclaire with 4.5, and egamaunt with 51.9.
Rounding out the top four was Xamtishado, who finished just behind at 48 points and a tiebreaker score of 2.9. All four winners will receive gift baskets from Green’s Bakery!
If you’d like to see how you stacked up, you can find our full spreadsheet of the results here. In total, we had over 600 entries. Overall, you were a smartly optimistic bunch: The median score was 42. For the tiebreaker, the median error was 20 points. You can also find out how entrants did overall on each question by checking out the shaded “Percent Correct” row. At one extreme, fully 98% of you correctly guessed the outcome of Colorado’s Senate race, while at the other, just 10% said that DCCC chair Sean Maloney would lose re-election. On average, 72% of participants got each question right.
Thanks again to all who entered, and a special thank you to our generous sponsor, GreensBabka.com! We’ll be in touch with the winners shortly to arrange for the delivery of your delicious baked goods!