Many male pundits say the abortion issue has faded. Maybe they’re just dim

Pro choice supporters gather outside the Michigan State Capitol during a "Restore Roe" rally in Lansing, on September 7, 2022. - Michigan's elections board last Wednesday rejected a voter initiative due to formatting of the petition text for the November ballot that would enshrine abortion rights in the state constitution, a move that sets the stage for a legal showdown at the state Supreme Court. More than 730,000 residents in Michigan signed a petition to get an amendment to enshrine reproductive rights into the Michigan's State Constitution. (Photo by JEFF KOWALSKY / AFP) (Photo by JEFF KOWALSKY/AFP via Getty Images)


In Michigan, a Detroit News/Glengariff poll conducted Oct. 26-28 found that while more independent voters said inflation was the most important issue facing Michigan, slightly more independents also tagged abortion as the issue most motivating them to vote.

Independent Voters

What is the most important issue facing Michigan?

  • 40% Inflation
  • 31% abortion

Which issue is most motivating you to go to the polls?

  • 35% abortion
  • 34% inflation

Among all female voters, abortion was the primary driver motivating them to vote, reported ClickonDetroit.com. Overall, 43.5% of female voters said they care most about abortion and women’s rights issues, while just 24.6% of male voters did.

In Pennsylvania, the latest Fox News poll found that, far from fading, intensity around abortion had actually increased more than on any other issue in the state’s critical Senate race.

Which issue is most important to your Senate vote

Oct. 26-30 July 22-26
Inflation 33% 27%
Abortion  24% 14%
Election integrity/voting rights 11% 11%
Crime 6% 4%

The final pre-election poll from Daily Kos/Civiqs showed that abortion remained the top motivating issue for Democratic voters across the country, with 52% of Democrats saying it would be the most important issue driving their vote.

VOTERS TOP FOUR ISSUES (DAILY KOS/CIVIQS POLL)

TOTAL DEMOCRAT REPUBLICAN INDEPENDENT
ECONOMY/JOBS/INFLATION 58% 38% 83% 60%
FAIR ELECTIONS/DEMOCRACY 34% 43% 26% 31%
IMMIGRATION 32% 19% 60% 30%
ABORTION 31% 52% 14% 24%

All of these data points back up early October findings from the Kaiser health tracking poll indicating that fully 50% of voters now say the Supreme Court’s decision overturning Roe has made them more motivated to vote—up from 43% who said the same in July and a 13-point bump since news of the opinion first leaked in May.

Plenty of recent polling has indicated that reports of the abortion issue’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. Perhaps the pundits claiming abortion has faded just aren’t that good at reading the polls. 

At long last, the 2022 midterms are almost here! With the battle for the House front and center, we give you a window into the key races on a final pre-election episode of The Downballot. We discuss a wide range of contests that will offer insight into how the night is going, including top GOP pickup opportunities, second-tier Republican targets, and the seats where Democrats are on offense. And with many vote tallies likely to stretch on for some time, we also identify several bellwether races in states that count quickly.



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