📈 NEW: Americans are even MORE motivated to vote now with the prospect of a nationwide abortion ban than they were with the overturning of Roe.
The news of a federal abortion ban increases voter motivation by +7 points compared to our previous polling in August (65% now vs 58%) pic.twitter.com/WKqR3witQj
— Navigator Research (@NavigatorSurvey) October 4, 2022
Opinion: What a night.
Walker campaign in turmoil after bombshell report
National Republicans are standing by [GA Sen. candidate Herschel] Walker and promise to continue supporting his campaign. “Georgians can see through the nonsense from the Democrats and the media and will vote accordingly,” a spokesman for the Senate GOP campaign apparatus told reporters Monday night.
But privately, some Republicans worry that this could be the final nail in the coffin for Walker’s campaign. “This could be it for Walker,” one Republican told me on the condition of anonymity. “This is definitely the kind of stuff that can sink a Senate campaign, and in an already close race, this puts Warnock in the driver’s seat.”
cautionary PSA: studied cynicism can blind you to events that might actually matter
‘it doesn’t matter’ is true until it isn’t. https://t.co/LbpzGQCQH9
— Greg Dworkin (@DemFromCT) October 4, 2022
Added: the reference is to Christian Walker, who the GOP thinks is doing more political damage than the original Daily Beast story.
Typically by this time in the election cycle, the national environment begins to crystallize and contests begin to move in tandem toward one party. Not so this time.
Steve tells Playbook: “It’s undoubtedly unusual to have nearly equal numbers of races moving in each direction, but it underscores some of the big themes of this unique midterm: GOP candidates who stretch the realms of electability (Ohio-09), crime as an ascendant issue (Oregon), the role of abortion access (Kansas-03).”
The bottom line for the House: POLITICO forecasts that 211 seats now at least lean toward Republicans, while 198 lean toward Democrats. Another 26 districts are toss-ups.
And/but Fetterman leads by 6, and Oz remains unpopular.
Election deniers are a threat to democracy. The midterms could be the last chance to stop them.
They are acting on Trump’s lies, flooding into local party offices, demanding to be stationed on the front lines of the next election so they can prevent it from being stolen. They have nominated scores of candidates who deny the legitimacy of Biden’s victory; seven are running to become the chief elections official in their state. Several of these Republicans—Mark Finchem in Arizona, Kristina Karamo in Michigan—are hinting at administrative actions that would reverse decades of progress in making elections more transparent and accessible, in turn leaving our system more vulnerable.
The great threat is no longer machines malfunctioning or ballots being spoiled. It is the actual theft of an election; it is the brazen abuse of power that requires not only bad actors in high places but the tacit consent of the voters who put them there.
This makes for a terrifying scenario in 2024—but first, a crucial test in 2022.
TBH, @GovRonDeSantis’s response has been so noteworthy that a story like this should be viewed as a “Hey, we’re not perfect” hiccup, but the ferocious and false response from @ChristinaPushaw & the Gov’s partisans make it a bigger issue.
This video has them dead to rights. https://t.co/w18SjwS8Gb
— Peter Schorsch (@PeterSchorschFL) October 3, 2022
Trump’s lawyer refused his request in February to say all documents returned
After initial return of 15 boxes, attorney Alex Cannon thought there might be more records at Mar-a-Lago, people familiar with the matter said
Trump himself eventually packed the boxes that were returned in January, people familiar with the matter said. The former president seemed determined in February to declare that all material sought by the archives had been handed over, said the people, who like others interviewed for this article spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss internal conversations.
So between that and the stuff found in his desk, office, and closet, it’s hard to argue ignorance.
Jamelle Bouie/NY Times:
The Supreme Court Seems Awfully Nervous About Its Own Legitimacy
If the conservative justices weren’t so convinced of their own righteousness — if they weren’t so high on their own supply — they might be able to see that they’re playing a dangerous game. The court’s power, including the influence of each individual justice, depends on the consent of the public and its representatives. And while there is not, at this moment, a broad-based movement to bring oversight and accountability to the Supreme Court, it’s also not beyond the realm of possibility.
The Dobbs ruling was so unpopular that it pushed a majority of Americans to support court expansion, according to a Marquette University Law School poll. Two-thirds of Americans also want to impose term limits on justices, according to The Associated Press. One can only imagine how these numbers will look as the conservative majority continues to write Republican Party ideology into the Constitution using “originalism” or “textualism” or whatever other method the justices choose to reverse engineer their conclusions, as they are poised to do in this new term with cases on gerrymandering, voting rights, the environment and the rights of sexual minorities.
Cheri Beasley is actually in a better position than Thom Tillis was last year, and he won. Beasley is down by a little under 1% on average, so while Budd is the favorite, even a small polling error, or undecideds breaking her away, could give her the victory. https://t.co/GTpRsXmat6
— Logan Phillips (@LoganR2WH) October 3, 2022
Paul Krugman/NY Times:
How Liz Truss Did So Much Damage in So Few Days
So why was the market reaction so fierce? Partly because Truss and Kwasi Kwarteng, the chancellor of the Exchequer, justified their moves with the much discredited claim that reducing top tax rates would provide a huge boost to economic growth. This raised doubts about their competence and, indeed, their connection to reality; it’s never good when economists at major banks declare that a country’s ruling party has become a doomsday cult.
Questions about Truss’s judgment were reinforced by the cluelessness of her timing. Right now ordinary Europeans, including Britons, are facing hard times, largely as an indirect consequence of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The Ukrainians, incredibly, seem to be winning the war; it doesn’t detract from their valor to say that Western weapons have played an important role in their success. So Vladimir Putin has tried to place pressure on the West by cutting off natural gas flows.
This is a huge adverse economic shock to Europe, probably bigger than the oil shocks of the 1970s. Governments are trying to limit the pain caused by soaring energy bills. But all of Europe — again, including Britain — is facing something like the economic equivalent of war. (America is much less affected, although natural gas prices have risen here too.) And as in wartime, government policies need to promote a sense that people are all in this together.
1. Everybody is saying right-wing Ga voters will stick with Walker. Duh, that’s obvious. But: There are still swing voters–the 5% or so who decide close elections. It’s my guess that ~58% of that 5% is repelled by these revelations. If so, he still loses narrowly.
— Michael Tomasky (@mtomasky) October 5, 2022